Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Procurement Operations Branch, MS2500, 381 Elden Street, Herndon, Virginia 20170-4817

B -- EXTENSION OF NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SOL 1435-01-00-RP-31076 DUE 072000 POC Jane M. Carlson, Contracting Officer (703) 787-1364 E-MAIL: Contracting Officer's email address, Jane.Carlson@mms.gov. B -- The Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS) intends to competitively award a contract to conduct an accurate numerical modeling hindcast of the mesoscale surface ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico. The following information will describe the prospective effort and advise potential offeror's how to respond. INTRODUCTION: The U. S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) has an ongoing need to perform computer simulations of the trajectories of hypothetical oil spills in U. S. coastal waters. The simulations are used to estimate the probabilities of oil spill contact to environmental and commercial resources, which in turn are part of the overall environmental impact assessments MMS makes in its offshore oil and gas leasing program. To construct the simulated trajectories, MMS needs ocean surface currents in geographical areas of interest and a concurrent ocean surface wind field. This particular project seeks ocean current and wind fields from the entire Gulf of Mexico and portions of the adjacent Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Presently, MMS is using a Gulf of Mexico ocean current field derived from observed and analyzed numerical model inputs. By comparison with in situ observations, this field realistically reproduces many features of the circulation in the Gulf, but is not an historical reconstruction of the currents as they actually were. With the project solicited herein, MMS seeks an accurate hindcast of the mesoscale and large-scale ocean currents obtained by data assimilation techniques incorporated into a state-of-the-art ocean circulation numerical model capable of fully reproducing the mesoscale ocean currents down to 10 km and at the time scale of 3 hours. Additionally, MMS wants the time sequences of the model inputs used to make the ocean current calculations and the computer language source code of the numerical model with documentation enabling qualified MMS personnel to use the model. STUDY OBJECTIVES: (1) To obtain an accurate numerical model hindcast field ofocean surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the adjacent Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean at the resolution of 10 km and 3 hours. At a minimum, the numerical model inputs shall be the surface wind, river runoff into the Gulf, ocean temperature and salinity, surface heat flux, and data assimilation of satellite altimetry. The numerical model used shall be a state-of-the-art numerical model, which has been demonstrated through peer-reviewed research to accurately reproduce mesoscale ocean currents. The resultant field of ocean surface currents must span the 7-year period from January 01, 1993 through December 31, 1999. (2) To estimate the accuracy of the locations of the Loop Current, the Loop Current eddies, and the secondary eddies in the Gulf of Mexico. MMS requires a skill assessment of the model-derived horizontal surface currents to demonstrate the accuracy of the Gulf currents during the 7-year time period. (3) To obtain the computer language source code of the numerical model used, all the input fields for the 7-year time period, and a user's manual enabling a numerical modeler at MMS to operate the model at MMS. SCOPE OF WORK: (Period of Performance) The study performance period is twenty-four (24) months. The collection and processing of ancillary data and the numerical computations shall be conducted in the first twelve (12) months, the remaining period shall be dedicated to verifying the accuracy of the model output currents and the preparation of a final report and a user's manual for the numerical model. (Computational Domain Specification) The computational domain shall be the entire Gulf of Mexico and adjacent portions of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean between the latitudes of 18 N and 30.5 N, and longitudes 78 W and 98.5 W. The numerical grid may be variable in mesh size but never greater than 10 km in each horizontal direction. The final output time step for the ocean currents shall be 3 hours, and the model must computationally resolve diurnal variability. Task 1. Numerical Modeling Hindcast of Surface Ocean Currents. An accurate hindcast of the surface ocean circulation in the computational domain (defined above) shall be performed using an existing, state-of-the-art, mesoscale-eddy-resolving, numerical ocean circulation model over the 7-year time period of January 01, 1993 through December 31, 1999. The model input forcing shall consist of at least the surface winds, river runoff into the Gulf, ocean temperature and salinity, surface heat flux, and data assimilation of satellite altimetry using a procedure accepted by the oceanographic modeling community. Other forcing phenomena such as the tide generating forces or atmospheric pressure may be used optionally. Sea surface temperature derived from satellite observations may be used optionally in the data assimilation scheme of the numerical model.Task 2. Verification of Model Hindcast Accuracy. The accuracy of the time-varying locations and strengths of the modeled Loop Current, Loop Current eddies, and other, secondary eddies in the Gulf of Mexico shall be determined by comparing the model's output field of surface currents against available observations during the same period of time, including those from MMS-funded field programs. Sea surface temperature derived from satellite observations shall be used also. Additionally, an extensive set of locations of satellite-tracked, surface ocean drifters deployed on the U. S. continental shelf in the Gulf are available from MMS and may be used for this purpose. (Task 3. Technical Report and User's Manual Preparation) A technical report documenting the model's input fields, the model's physics and numerical methods employed, and the observations, methods, and results of the accuracy verification of the output currents shall be produced. In addition, a user's manual documenting the computer language source code of the numerical model used and its operation shall be produced. The user's manual shall also document the other, ancillary computer programs provided and shall be written for a sophisticated user -- one who is knowledgeable about numerical ocean circulation modeling in general but not necessarily familiar with the particular model used in this study. DELIVERABLES: In addition to progress and final reports and formal presentations to MMS and advisors, the contractor shall provide to MMS the model input and output fields in a format mutually agreed upon, the computer programming language source code of the numerical model and ancillary programs, and a user's manual to enable a sophisticated numerical modeler to prepare the computational grid and model inputs and operate the numerical model. MMS may additionally request that the input and output fields be geo-referenced in a format accessible to the ARCVIEW computer program. COST RANGE: This contract will be procured for an amount of money in the range of $200,000 to $250,000. In order to compete for this contract, an offeror must demonstrate they are qualified to perform the work by providing, not later than July 10, 2000, a Capabilities Statement describing in detail the following: (A) Key Personnel with the expertise and experience to conduct the described numerical modeling of ocean currents. Particularly relevant is their expertise in the fields of ocean circulation theory, the ocean currents of the Gulf of Mexico, numerical methods applied to ocean circulation phenomena, and the collection and processing of large oceanographic and meteorological data sets. The expertise and experience of the principal investigators in these areas can be demonstrated through authorship of peer-reviewed publications, presentations at scientific or other professional meetings, successfully completed contract-funded or grant-funded projects, and professional affiliation with research groups working in any of the above mentioned fields. (B) Institutional Resources sufficient to perform this type of work. Document the existence of adequate computer resources. These would be a dedicated computer(s) and computer peripherals to perform all the data handling and data processing and numerical computations to complete the project described above or, alternately, sufficient access to shared computers and needed computer peripherals to perform the work. (C) Numerical Ocean Circulation Model(s) of state-of-the-art development with data assimilation capability suitable to fully resolve the mesoscale surface ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent ocean areas at diurnal and longer periods. The principal investigators of this project must have access to and have already used such a model in at least one successful application. The state of model development, model capability, and past model performance can be demonstrated through its use in peer-reviewed research published within the last three years, presentations of model results at scientific or other professional meetings within the last three years, use of the model in successfully completed contract-funded applied research, use of the model by other researchers, or its use in some practical application. EVALUATION CRITERIA: Capabilities Statements will be evaluated on the following bases. (A) Key Personnel will be judged upon their expertise and experience in the areas of ocean circulation theory, the large-scale and mesoscale currents of the Gulf of Mexico, the application of numerical methods applied to ocean circulation phenomena, and the collection and processing of large oceanographic and meteorological data sets. Expertise and experience can be demonstrated through authorship of peer-reviewed publications, presentations at scientific or other professional meetings, successfully completed contract-funded or grant-funded projects, and professional affiliation with research groups working in any of the above mentioned fields. Any other documentation of expertise and experience will be considered also. (B) Institutional Resources will be judged on the adequacy of available computer resources. These would be a dedicated computer(s) and computer peripherals to perform all the data handling and data processing and numerical computations to complete the project described above or, alternately, sufficient access to shared computers and needed computer peripherals to perform the work. Any other information pertinent to the institutional capability to perform numerical modeling work will be considered also. (C) Numerical Ocean Circulation Model(s) to be used in this study will be judged upon its state of development compared to present-day numerical ocean circulation models and, crucially, upon its capability to perform data assimilation and to resolve the mesoscale surface ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent ocean areas at diurnal and longer periods. The model(s) must have been used in at least one successful application. The state of model development, model capability, and past model performance can be demonstrated through its use in peer-reviewed research published within the last three years, presentations of model results at scientific or other professional meetings within the last three years, use of the model in successfully completed contract-funded applied research, use of the model by other researchers, or its use in some practical application. Any other information documenting model capability will be considered also. REFERENCES WILL BE CHECKED. Offerors shall submit their Capabilities Statement in original and six (6) copies to Jane M. Carlson, Contracting Officer, Minerals Management Service, 381 Elden Street, MS-2500, Herndon, Virginia 20170-4817. Questions should be faxed to Jane Carlson at (703)-787-1387 or e-mailed to Jane.Carlson@mms.gov. All correspondence should include the RFP number, your full name/company name, address and phone and fax numbers. Requests or questions by telephone are strongly discouraged. Posted 06/20/00 (W-SN466711). (0172)

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