U. S. EPA, Attn: Purchasing, P.O. Box 93478, Las Vegas, NV 89193-3478

A -- DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR THE INTERPOLATION OF AIR AND DEPOSITION POLLUTANTS SOL ESD-00-001 POC Technical Contact: Ralph Baumgardner (919/541-4625); ESD Point of Contact: Albert Witmayer (702/798-2689) E-MAIL: To request copies of the Request for Assistance Funding,, witmayer.albert@epa.gov. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Landscape Characterization Branch, P.O. Box 93478, Las Vegas, NV 89193-3478, is seeking assistance by cooperative agreement with nonprofit or not-for-profit research organizations to collaborate on research to develop new statistical approaches for the: (1) spatial interpolation of air and deposition pollutant data from several national monitoring programs; (2) design of future networks to minimize prediction variance of spatial interpolation; and (3) visualization of predictive analyses. This agreement shall require a 5% cost-sharing by the recipient organization. A high degree of collaboration with the EPA researchers involved in these activities is required (e.g., joint planning and conduct of most tasks; co-authoring of all publications). This research is needed to support the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVa) program that is designed to provide a regional-scale ecological risk assessment of the mid-Atlantic region and other regions of the U.S. ReVa is charged with providing regional-scale, spatially-explicit information on the extent and distribution of atmospheric stressors. Through this cooperative agreement, research will be conducted to develop new statistical methodologies for the prediction of precise and accurate regional patterns of pollution. Among the data sets to be used will be data from the Clean Air Status and Trends Monitoring Network, the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network, and the National Air Monitoring Stations/State and Local Air Monitoring Stations network. The research issues under consideration for collaboration are listed below. 1. The development of spatial covariance functions that model underlying non-stationary atmospheric processes. The predictive performance of these covariance functions should be compared to results obtained from existing interpolation methodologies. Further, the inclusion of co-variate information (e.g., meteorological and emissions data) to improve the accuracy and precision of prediction should be considered. 2. Development of methods for evaluating the predictive power of existing and planned monitoring networks. Design questions related to monitoring networks could include: a) given an existing monitoring network, where should an additional k stations be placed to significantly reduce prediction variance? b) Can we delete sites and still maintain reasonable predictive capability? c) should existing sites be moved? and d) could sites be operated for short time period, allowing good estimation of the spatial covariance? 3. The research should evaluate and develop methods for combining data from several sources(i.e., monitoring networks) to enable more accurate and precise predications. Typically, these data vary in quality (bias and prediction) across networks and methods are required to quantify the additional uncertainty associated with these conditions. 4. New methods and techniques are needed to communicate the nature and uncertainty of predictive modeling in understandable and meaningful ways to scientists, policy makers, and the public. What to report, as well as how to report, is of major importance; insignificant results have to be separated from significant ones. Patterns and the associated uncertainties need to be displayed together. Proposals will be evaluated by internal and external peer review and judged according to the applicants experience with similar research activities, qualifications of the proposed staff, demonstrated understanding of appropriate research, and feasibility of the proposed working arrangement with the EPA staff. The applicants proposed budget will also be considered in the selection process. A modified quality assurance narrative statement will be required as a part of each proposal that respond to this solicitation. EPA yearly resources for this activity is expected to be in the range of $125,000 to $175,000 per year for three years and could be less depending on the availability of funds. The statutory authority for this cooperative agreement is found in Section 103 of the Clean Air Act of 1990; 42 U.S.C.7403. Interested applicants must be eligible to receive Federal Assistance under the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 30 -- General Regulation for Assistance Programs, and Part 40 -- Research and Demonstration Grants. Additional technical instructions and appropriate materials will be provided upon request. Posted 03/17/00 (W-SN435767). (0077)

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