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B -- SOCIOECONOMIC STUDIES SOL 9-4276 DUE 090499 POC Sandra Souders, (301) 713-0854 B -- The U.S. Dept of Commerce/NOAA/Office of Global Programs intends to negotiate on a sole source basis with Clark University to validate the presence of two distinct ENSO-related spatial drought patterns over southern Africa using monthly time series OLR data and gridded and station rainfall data for the same period. Broad macro-level socioeconomic data on production, yield, and population affected will be analyzed to validate differential impacts of the two patterns, enabling the user community to make location-specific decisions about response to ENSO-related droughts in the region. The project titled: "Differential Effects of ENSO over the Southern Africa Region: Physical and Socio-Economic Manifestations" will provide farmers, governments, and relief agencies with predictions of the spatial manifestations of drought in order to improve planning and reduce panic in the face of drought forecasts. This is a notice of intent and cannot be considered a solicitation; therefore, no solicitation package exists. Award will be made using simplified acquisition procedures. (Reference No. 9-4276) Posted 08/20/99 (W-SN370568). (0232)

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