National Cancer Institute, Research Contracts Branch, PSAS, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS/Room 638, Bethesda, MD 20892-7227

B -- ANALYZE CRITICAL ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN CREATING RADIOEPIDEMIOLOGICAL TABLES SOL RFQ-NCI-90184-NV DUE 090799 POC Debbie Moore, Purchasing Agent & Todd Cole, Contracting Officer The Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Div. of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics of the National Institutes, intends to procure the services of Senes Oak Ridge, Inc., 102 Donner Drive, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 37830, to analyze the critical elements of uncertainty in creating Radioepidemiological Tables for calculating the probability that a given instance of cancer might be reasonably attributed to a particular radiation exposure or sequence of exposures. BACKGROUND: Under a previous acquisition, Senes Oak Ridge created a computer program to integrate risk coefficients and uncertainty distributions for various steps in a chain of inferences about radiation-related risk, and tested it using site-, age-, and gender-specific risk coefficients and uncertainty information supplied by NCI from various sources. The computer program, with various data files in preparation at NCI, is to be the major instrument by which the conclusions of a newly revised version of the 1985 "Report of the National Institutes of Health Ad Hoc Working Group to Develop Radioepidemiological Tables," now in preparation by an NCI working group, will be summarized and applied to individual cases. The remaining work on the revised NIH report, which is expected to be sent to the printers on or about July 1, 2000, will be to finalize the input data, including uncertainty distributions for various risk components, document the assumptions and rationale of the proposed method, present the work to a group of advisors expert in various aspects of the general problem, to members of the public, and to an oversight panel of the National Academy of Sciences, and respond to comments and recommendations from these reviewers. It is likely that the report may be revised somewhat as a result of this lengthy review. REQUIREMENT: Now that the interactive computer program has been created and found to be technically satisfactory, and the general form of the revised report has been established, NCI is charged with writing the text of the report in such a way that the assumptions, scientific results, and logic of the algorithms are clearly documented and accessible to interested parties including federal and other agencies that may use it and potential claimants. This will require extensive documentation of the computer program as well as commentary in the text of the report, both of which would benefit from the participation of experts in uncertainty analysis. It will be necessary to respond to reviewers, some of whose questions and comments may be expected to be highly technical. Further software development may be required in the course of the review process, and it will be necessary to re-test the software and train staff of user agencies in its use. NCI is committed to completing this work in nine months. Senes Oak Ridge staff developed the software that is the centerpiece of the revised NIH report and, especially in the case of Dr. Hoffman, have tremendous expertise in the field of uncertainty analysis, particularly as applied to radiation-related risk. Because of this unique experience, both general and particular, Senes is the only organization known to NCI researchers that can provide the needed expertise to demonstrate the proposed methodology to general and specialist audiences, respond to reviewers' inquiries, develop and re-test software, provide documentation, and provide the necessary training to potential users of the report within the time frame required. However, if any other interested party believes it can perform the above work within the specified time period and has significant experience in the above areas, it may submit a statement of capabilities. The statement of capabilities and any other information must be in writing and must contain material in sufficient detail to allow NCI to determine if the party can perform this requirement. Capability statements must be received in the contracting office by 2:00 p.m. EST, on September 7, 1999. For further information or questions please contact Debbie Moore, Purchasing Agent, at 301-402-4509. A determination by the Government not to compete this proposed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion for the Government. Information received will be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. Posted 08/20/99 (W-SN370657). (0232)

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