National Cancer Institute, Research Contracts Branch, PSAS, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS/Room 638, Bethesda, MD 20892-7227

B -- SPECIAL STUDIES AND ANALYSIS -- EXTENDING A PREVIOUS PILOT STUDY THAT INVOLVED OBTAINING ESTIMATES OF CANCER INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE SOL RFQ90088(NR) DUE 050399 POC Marsha Gorham, Purchasing Agent, & Todd Cole, Contracting Officer The Applied Research Branch (ARB) and the Cancer Statistics Branch (CSB), Cancer Surveillance Research Program (CSRP), Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences (DCCPS), National Cancer Institute (NCI) plans to procure services from the Istituto Nazionale Per Lo Studio, Milan, Italy, for extending work of a previous pilot study that involved obtaining estimates of cancer incidence and prevalence at the state level in the U. S. and producing a software modeling package to calculate cancer prevalence. In the proposed project herein initial phase, the specific goal is to complete studies and produce programs applicable to cases A and B that are cited below. The analysis of three cases as an extension of a pilot that was previously synopsized in the CBD is now required. The parameter of this extension follows: A. If the population of interest has been covered by cancer registration (CR) for a long time (40 years or more) then prevalence shall be calculated directly and reliably from incidence andvital status data available from CR's; B. If the population has been covered by cancer registration for a sufficient period (in general between 10 and 40 years), then a fraction of the complete prevalence of a given disease shall be calculated directly using the same methods as in case A. The unobserved fraction of the prevalence, which consists of the surviving cases diagnosed before cancer registration began, shall be estimated. These estimates can then be obtained by the use of mathematical functions whose parameters are derived by analyzing the available data on specific incidence and survival {1}; C. If the population is only partially covered or not covered at all by cancer registration then prevalence shall be estimated from mortality and survival rates {2} A statistical method for estimating chronic disease incidence and prevalence from mortality and patient survival data has been developed by researchers from the Instituto in Italy. This method has been applied to study cancer morbidity trends at the national level in Italy and at the state level in the U.S. under the aforementioned pilot. The aim of this project is to develop and deliver a software program for modeling that is based on the current requirement. The software shall be compatible to that package produced under the pilot to ensure reliable results. Dr. Riccardo Capocaccia & Dr. Andrea Micheli are leading experts in the development of these methods and the application for estimating disease incidence and prevalence. They have an extensive list of published work in this area, appearing in major statistical and epidemiologic journals. The expertise and experience of these researchers are essential to the success of completing this project and the continued use of this method by the Government. Based on the previous pilot and completed studies there are no other sources known to the NCI researcher who can complete these tasks and maintain the reliability of results and compatibility of software. This is the only source known to NCI that can provide the services. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. However, if any interested party believes it can meet the above requirements, it may submit a statement of capabilities. The capability statement and any other information must be in writing and must contain material in sufficient detail to allow NCI to determine if the party can fully meet this requirement. Capability statements must be received in the contracting office by 11:00 p.m. EST, on May 03, 1999. If you have any questions, please contact Marsha Gorham, Purchasing Agent on (301)402-4509. This is not a request for competitive quotations. However, a determination by the Government not to compete this proposed requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. Information received will be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement. Posted 04/14/99 (W-SN320270). (0104)

Loren Data Corp. http://www.ld.com (SYN# 0008 19990416\B-0003.SOL)