National Cancer Institute, Research Contracts Branch, PCCS, Executive Plaza South, Room 635, Bethesda, MD 20892

A -- MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING SOL NCI-CN-55104-63 DUE 061995 POC Tina Huyck, Contracting Officer Representative, Clyde Williams, Contracting Officer, 301-496-8603. The National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control (DCPC), Applied Research Branch, is soliciting proposals for the Microsimulation Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening. This project is to develop a computer-based simulation model which will be a useful aid in the systematic evaluation of evidence, from randomized controlled trials and other sources, on the efficacy and effectiveness of various appproaches to colon cancer screening. The model will also be a useful tool for conducting prospective cost-effectiveness analysis of various proposals for implementing colon cancer screening on a mass, population-based level. This model is to be produced by modifying an existing micro-simulation model designed to address issues of cancer screening. Micro-simulation models use Monte Carlo statistical methods to model the cost and effectiveness of the disease and the technical characteristics of the screening technology. A large number of hypothetical ''life histories'' for an un-screened and a corresponding screened population are simulated. Each life history is randomly assigned, but the overall distribution of these histories is determined by a statistical model of the natural history of the cancer under study, the technical characteristics of the screening technology being investigated and the demographic characteristics of the population being screened. The following tasks will be necessary: 1) Substantial new programming work will have to be done to address the complex issues in colorectal cancer screening; 2) The initial values of model parameters (including distributional specifications) need to be developed; 3) Exploratory calculations will be performed with the initial version of the model. Extensive sensitivity analysis will be performed to identify the parameters that are most crucial in determining the cost-effectiveness results for the various tests; 4) Continued and more refined analysis of key natural history and screening test parameters will be conducted by using the model to simulate existing RCT, case-control and other screening studies; 5) The end objective of the project is to have a functional quantitative model which will describe those aspects of the colorectal cancer screening which are currently believed to be important and produce estimates of effectiveness and cost effectiveness of various screening policies and programs. Requests for this solicitation must be in writing and reference NCI-CN-55104-63. The RFP will be available approximately May 17, 1995 and proposals will be due approximately June 19, 1995. Requests should be addressed/mailed to Ms. Tina Huyck, Contracting Officer Representative, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Research Contracts Branch, PCCS, Executive Plaza South, Room 635, 6120 Executive Boulevard MSC 7226, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-7226. No collect calls will be accepted. (0123)

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