SOLICITATION NOTICE
R -- Michigan Space Weather Model Framework - JOFOC
- Notice Date
- 9/23/2014
- Notice Type
- Fair Opportunity / Limited Sources Justification
- NAICS
- 541690
— Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Western Acquisition Division-Boulder, 325 Broadway - MC3, Boulder, Colorado, 80305-3328, United States
- ZIP Code
- 80305-3328
- Solicitation Number
- RA-133W-14-RP-0132
- Archive Date
- 10/23/2014
- Point of Contact
- Julia Hamilton, Phone: 303-497-3487
- E-Mail Address
-
julia.l.hamilton@noaa.gov
(julia.l.hamilton@noaa.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Award Number
- RA-133W-14-CN-0134
- Award Date
- 9/23/2014
- Description
- JOFOC JUSTIFICATION FOR OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION PURCHASE REQUISITION: NWWX9000-14-02005 1.Contracting Activity. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Western Acquisition Division 2.Nature and/or description of action being approved. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is seeking to establish a sole source contract with the University of Michigan (UM) Center for Space Environment Modeling (CSEM), to provide technical expertise and support for the transition of the geospace portion of UM Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model from research to operations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). These models will be run on supercomputers at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations. 3.Description of the supplies and/or services required to meet the agency's needs. This contract provides expert technical services from UM to help the NOAA SWPC transition the geospace portion of the UM SWMF model into operations. These services are critical to the successful model implementation. The model itself is being provided at no cost to NOAA. The services provided include a one year base period and two, one-year option periods from the date of award. The estimated value of the total award is approximately $554,346.00. The scope of this work is broad because it involves experts with a broad range of expertise. It involves both scientists and software engineers who understand the basic science of Earth's magnetosphere, its various regions and how it is driven by solar wind conditions on one end and controlled by ionospheric conditions on the other. Codes that represent these regions of space, and the interactions and processes that take place in these regions, are extremely difficult to develop, enormous (greater than 150,000 lines of code) and utilize extremely complex mathematical methods to express and solve the equations used in the codes. 4.Authority permitting other than full and open competition. The authority for this action is FAR 6.302-1. Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements. UM demonstrates a unique capability of the source to provide the particular support services proposed. 5.A demonstration that the proposed contractor's unique qualifications or nature of the acquisition requires the authority cited. SWPC is charged with the responsibility of providing electric power utility providers with predictions of regional (local) geomagnetic disturbances that can cause widespread voltage control problems, protective system problems, transformer damage, or even complete collapse of the electric power grid, or blackouts. (See e.g. NOAA's Space Weather Scales at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/). To determine which model(s) provide the guidance needed for improved forecasts of regional ground-based magnetic field disturbances, a scientific evaluation of three magnetohydrodyamic (MHD) physics-based models and two empirical models, available at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was conducted by the CCMC in an independent assessment. Two different, but related measures of geomagnetic activity that can affect power grid operations were examined: 1) Regional dB/dt: the rapid, 1-minute time rate of change of the Earth's magnetic field at selected regions or locations, and 2) Regional K index: an index of the general level of geomagnetic activity. From the results of the NASA evaluation, and information learned throughout the evaluation process, SWPC has determined that, at this time, only one of the models evaluated is able to deliver the results necessary for our needs. That model is the University of Michigan's Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). Full copies of the reports and scientific analysis are included as attachments, and all stakeholders, including the owners of the five models have reviewed the results of the evaluation. The key results that led to the conclusion that the SWMF model is the only one available to suite NOAA's needs includes: •Out of all five publicly available models scientifically analyzed, the UM MHD model had the highest probability of detection for most of the dB/dt magnetic disturbance thresholds, and it demonstrated the greatest overall skill in predicting a regional magnetic index. •Two additional MHD models were examined. One model, because of its large values for the probability of false detection and over prediction for Regional K, is not suited for serving power grid customers. The other MHD model tends to under predict. Again, this is not suited for serving power grid customers. •For dB/dt disturbances, averaged over all events, the physics-based MHD models are ranked higher than the empirical models for most events and thresholds, and for both empirical models, the probability of detection is always lower than 50% which makes these models unsuitable for serving power grid customers. 6.A description of efforts made to ensure offers are solicited from as many potential sources as practicable and whether any synopsis was posted. A solicitation was not made and a synopsis was not posted as the purpose of this effort is to provide technical expertise and support for the transition of the UM model into operations at SWPC. The UM is the developer of the numerical model software and the holder of the software license agreement and copyright. UM is the only organization with the in-depth technical knowledge of their software that is needed for this effort and qualified to provide these services. 7.A determination by the CO that the anticipated cost to the Government will be fair and reasonable. The proposed hourly rates for a model developer will be determined fair and reasonable based on comparisons to same or similar services. The proposed prices will be compared to NOAA Link contract holder average rates and GSA contract holders. 8.A description of the market research conducted and the results (attach documentation as necessary). The market research (technical capabilities, but not costs) conducted to determine which scientific model would best support SWPC customers, including the US power grids, consisted of a multi-year scientific study of five geospace models available at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The models were compared by NASA for their capabilities to predict the geomagnetic environment important to SWPC customers. 9.Any other facts supporting the use of other than full and open competition. None. 10.A listing of sources, if any, that expressed an interest in the acquisition. Not applicable, as there was not a solicitation. 11.A statement of the actions the Agency may take to remove or overcome barriers to competition. In the future, NOAA can take several actions to overcome barriers to competition. NOAA will continue to encourage our partner agencies in the National Space Weather Program (NSWP), including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), to continue to support model developers on new and improved model research and development. In addition, NOAA can provide opportunities at scientific meetings for modelers to demonstrate how their models may surpass or improve on current NOAA operational models. I certify that this justification is accurate and complete to the best of my knowledge and belief and the evidence presented herein forms the basis of, and supports the action being approved. _________________________________________ Date: ____________________ Chad M. Hepp CONTRACTING OFFICER. _________________________________________ Date: ____________________ Donna Michelle Warren DIRECTOR OF CONTRACTS, WESTERN ACQUISITION DIVISION.
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/DOC/NOAA/MASC/RA-133W-14-RP-0132/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: 503 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109-1340, United States
- Zip Code: 48109-1340
- Zip Code: 48109-1340
- Record
- SN03524330-W 20140925/140923235654-1849f9dead0f91896d00bbc58ee34414 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
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