SPECIAL NOTICE
99 -- IGF::OT::IGFProvide the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Adminis
- Notice Date
- 4/7/2014
- Notice Type
- Special Notice
- Contracting Office
- Office of HQ PS (HQ)U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Headquarters Procurement ServicesMA-641000 Independence Ave., S.W.WashingtonDC20585US
- ZIP Code
- 00000
- E-Mail Address
-
Miller, Marceline S
(marceline.miller@eia.doe.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- U.S. Department of Energy Office of Headquarters Procurement Services 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20585-1615 Contracting Officer: Donna C. Williams, MA-64 Subject: Access to University of Michigan / Research on Energy and Financial Markets Contractor: University of Michigan Purchase Order Award Number: DE-EI0002213 Set-Aside: No Notice of Intent Open: April 7, 2014 Close: April 22, 2014 The U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Information Administration, (EIA), Office of the Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis, (OEA), plans to issue a purchase order for access to the University of Michigan to perform research on energy and financial markets. The Government intends to award a sole source, firm-fixed-price purchase order to the Regents of the University of Michigan. The period of performance for this award will be from September 2, 2014 to August 31, 2015. The principle place of performance will be at the contractor?s facilities. Description: The Government intends to contract with the University of Michigan to perform research on a suitable methodology of generating monthly and quarterly forecasts of the price of gasoline and heating oil at horizons up to two years that is available in real time. In addition to producing a research paper, which includes reviewing literature and evaluating the historical performance of the suitable forecasting methods, this procurement will also involve providing EIA with a real-time database and with suitable Matlab code, and educating EIA staff to maintain the database in real time and to apply these forecasting tools and update the results. The University of Michigan has subject matter experts available to successfully accomplish EIA?s requirement. Specifically, Professor Lutz Kilian is uniquely qualified for this work. Professor Kilian has a combination of extensive modeling skills, has conducted financial market and oil price research, and possesses an understanding of the global business cycle index that he introduced. The professor has done extensive research in the area of statistical methodologies of forecasting related to crude oil and product price formation and has also published numerous academic papers on this topic. Professor Kilian can construct a customized mathematical model for understanding the relationship between financial market activity and oil prices. He will implement the model, analyze the data and interpret the findings. The focus of this project will be on forecasting the price of gasoline and heating oil at horizons up to two years in real time. To perform this research, analysts explore existing and prospective methods to forecasting product prices, e.g., 1) use of futures prices for refined product; 2) rely on own past of product prices; 3) utilize vector error correction specification; 4) use of the spread between the price of crude oil and the product price; 5) utilize time-varying parameter models; 6) use changes in gasoline inventories or gasoline production; etc. Considerable time and effort would be required for another researcher to acquire the expertise and qualifications that Professor Kilian has, including an understanding of the base of the structural econometric model and an understanding of the global business cycle index. He has spent a great deal of time preparing the necessary data for use in research and analysis. No other suppliers will satisfy agency requirements. In accordance with the Competition in Contracting Act, 41 USC 253 [c] [1], as implemented by FAR 6.302-1, other than full and open competition is authorized when there is only one responsible source and no other supplies and services will satisfy agency requirements. This is a notice of intent and no solicitation is available for this requirement. Interested parties may submit capability statement and rationale by April 16, 2014 at 12:00pm EST via e-mail to Marceline Miller at: marceline.miller@eia.gov. The written response must include a general statement for services mentioned in this announcement and past performance client information for similar work. A determination by the Government to compete this proposed contract based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. Information received will normally be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive requirement.
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