SPECIAL NOTICE
A -- Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Proposers' Day Announcement
- Notice Date
- 4/16/2010
- Notice Type
- Special Notice
- NAICS
- 541712
— Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology)
- Contracting Office
- Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, Washington, District of Columbia, 20511, United States
- ZIP Code
- 20511
- Solicitation Number
- IARPA-BAA-10-05(pd)
- Archive Date
- 5/17/2011
- Point of Contact
- Jason G. Matheny,
- E-Mail Address
-
dni-iarpa-baa-10-05@ugov.gov
(dni-iarpa-baa-10-05@ugov.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- SYNOPSIS The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) will host a Proposers' Day Conference for the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program on 19 May 2010, in anticipation of the release of a new solicitation in support of the program. The Conference will be held from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. The purpose of the conference will be to provide information on ACE, to address questions from potential proposers, and to provide a forum for potential proposers to present their capabilities and find potential team partners. This announcement serves as a pre-solicitation notice and is issued solely for information and planning purposes. The Proposers' Day Conference does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or proposal abstracts. Conference attendance is voluntary and is not required to propose to future solicitations (if any) associated with this program. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION AND GOALS Intelligence analysts are often asked to forecast significant events on the basis of limited quantitative data. It is common for such events to be contingent upon earlier events or actions. Generally, forecasts are prepared using expert judgment by individuals and small groups. Empirical research outside the intelligence community has shown that the accuracy of judgment-based forecasts is consistently improved by mathematically aggregating the judgments of many independent experts. The goal of the ACE Program is to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts. The ACE Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: (a) efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events; (b) mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy; and (c) effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions. The ACE Program will build upon technical achievements of past research and on state-of-the-art systems used today for generating probabilistic forecasts from widely-dispersed experts. The program will involve empirical testing of forecasting accuracy against real events. Collaborative efforts/teaming among potential performers are strongly encouraged. It is anticipated that teams will be multidisciplinary with expertise in the social sciences, statistics, information design, and software development. IARPA anticipates that universities and companies from around the world will participate in this research. Researchers will be able to publish their findings in publicly-available, academic journals. REGISTRATION INFORMATION Attendees must register no later than 5:00pm EST, 07 May 2010, at https://conference.brtrc.com/ace_pd/registration. Directions to the conference facility and other materials are available on the website. No walk-in registrations will be allowed. Due to space limitations, attendance will be limited to the first 120 registrants and to no more than 2 representatives per organization. All attendees will be required to present a government-issued photo identification to enter the conference. Foreign nationals will need to present a passport. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION The late morning and afternoon will include Presentation & Poster sessions to provide an opportunity for attendees to present their organizations’ capabilities and to explore teaming arrangements. Details on the presentation and poster formats, and the procedure for submitting a request to present, will be provided after approval to register for the conference has been granted. Time available for presentations and posters will be limited. Therefore, presentations will be limited to the first 15 registered respondents with IARPA-approved presentations, and posters will be limited to the first 50 registered respondents with IARPA-approved posters. These presentations are not intended to solicit feedback from the Government, and Government personnel will not be present during the presentations. This Proposers' Day is intended for participants who are eligible to compete on the anticipated BAA. Other Government Agencies, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), and University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs) will not be eligible to submit proposals to the anticipated BAA or participate as team members under proposals submitted by eligible entities. While such entities are not prohibited from attending the Proposers’ Day, due to space limitations, preference will be given first to those organizations that are eligible to compete. IARPA will not provide reimbursement for costs incurred to participate in this conference. Questions concerning conference & registration can be sent to IARPAevents@brtrc.com Questions regarding the program can be sent to dni-iarpa-baa-10-05@ugov.gov
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