MODIFICATION
R -- System Dynamic Modeling
- Notice Date
- 8/20/2009
- Notice Type
- Modification/Amendment
- NAICS
- 541990
— All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
- Contracting Office
- Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Library of Medicine, 6707 Democracy Blvd., Suite 105, Bethesda, Maryland, 20894, United States
- ZIP Code
- 20894
- Solicitation Number
- 9-150SB
- Archive Date
- 9/19/2009
- Point of Contact
- Sally Boakye, Phone: 301-496-6546
- E-Mail Address
-
boakyes@mail.nih.gov
(boakyes@mail.nih.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- Amendment #1: The purpose of this amendment is to impose a five (5) page limit for the technical portion of the response, using 10 pt arial facetype, 1/2 inch margin & single space (5 page limit excludes cost estimate, bio sketches & resumes). All other terms and conditions of this notice remain the same. Title of Solicitation: System Dynamics Modeling to Inform Overweight and Obesity-relevant Policy: A Comparative Modeling Network This is a combined synopsis/solicitation. This acquisition will be conducted under the procedures for acquiring commercial items authorized in FAR Part 12 and under the authority to use simplified acquisition procedures for commercial requirements provided in FAR 13.5. This announcement constitutes the formal Request for Quotation (RFQ) and a separate written solicitation WILL NOT be issued. The solicitation number is RFQ No. NLM 9-150-SB. This solicitation document and incorporated provisions and clauses are those in effect through FAR FAC 2005-35 (July 2009). The NAICS code for this requirement is 541720. Background Information In 2007, the Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (OBSSR) at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in collaboration with the Robert Woods Johnson Foundation (RWJF) funded the Collaborative Obesity Modeling Network (COMNet). COMNet was designed to convene modeling groups from around the world (United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia) who were already developing statistical and computational models for obesity. The groups have convened four times and the original contract will expire soon. The purpose of these meetings was for the groups learn about one another's models. Although many valuable lessons have been learned through these meetings, the initial COMNet contract did not provide funds for modeling work per se; rather funding was limited to convening meetings. What has been realized through these meetings is that there is a need to identify the best ways that modeling can be used to aid policy decisions about how to reverse the obesity epidemic. "Comparative modeling" exercises were identified as a promising approach for this endeavor. Comparative modeling involves using a variety of different modeling approaches to address common questions, and in some cases may involve some common model assumptions or datasets. Comparative modeling can be used to show how differences in approaches can affect projected outcomes and to help determine which approaches are best suited for which research questions. Results from comparative modeling studies lend credibility to model results by providing a form of sensitivity analysis on the model assumptions and structure adopted by independent working groups. As part of the next phase of COMNet, OBSSR, RWJF, and a new partner, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), have come together to sponsor a comparative modeling exercise for overweight and obesity-related public policy. RWJF and NICHD have already identified modeling groups that they will be supporting in this joint project. Through this "sources sought" notice, OBSSR is seeking two modeling groups that it will fund to participate in this comparative modeling venture, along with the groups funded by RWJF and NICHD. System Dynamics modeling has proven useful for informing public policy decisions in many areas that affect human life and health, including tobacco use, cardiovascular disease risk factors, diabetes, and mental health. A variety of modeling approaches are represented among the modeling groups supported by NICHD and RWJF, but currently there are no system dynamics modeling groups being supported in the comparative modeling network. Therefore, OBSSR would like to fill this gap by supporting one or two modeling groups that specialize in system dynamics modeling as part of the comparative modeling network. The proposed comparative modeling network will use the success of another network as its guide: the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET www.cisnet.cancer.gov). CISNET is a consortium of investigators funded by the National Cancer Institute, all of whom have developed models to improve our understanding of the impact of cancer control interventions (e.g., prevention, screening treatment) on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. In addition to examining past trends, these models are also used to project future trends in order to project the outcomes associated with various cancer control strategies. The proposed comparative modeling network is the first attempt to our knowledge to develop such a consortium focused on obesity and overweight. Purpose The purpose of this solicitation is to invite offeror teams - made up of at least one system dynamics modeling expert in partnership with one or more obesity policy experts - to develop a proposal to join the comparative obesity modeling network. What is necessary are the requisite skills and knowledge to complete the project, while the specifics of the project (i.e., which policy questions will be modeled, and which datasets will be used) will not be known until the project is underway. In addition to top notch modeling skills and obesity policy expertise, a demonstrated ability to collaborate and work in teams is essential. In this case, it is our expectation that the whole (i.e., the contributions of the modeling teams in the network, combined) will be far greater than the sum of its parts (i.e., the contributions of the individual modeling teams in isolation). It is expected that at the end of the project term (two years) there will be considerable knowledge to improve and validate the use of mathematical models to project population outcomes and evaluate the effect of interventions and policies that impact the prevalence of childhood and adult obesity. Most of the focus will be on the United States, but we will also draw on experiences and models in other countries where available and applicable. Models will be constructed for the total population, as well as for subpopulations (e.g., age groups, males vs. females). There has been growing concern about growing disparities in rates of obesity in the United States, the models developed will address gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic position, and examine the assumptions underlying these constructs and their applicability. One of the important issues we need to understand is the potential differences in longer term outcomes of obesity (e.g. diabetes incidence and overall morbidity, mortality and functional status as it may vary across populations and ecologic settings). Another important issue that will focus prominently in the exercise is how policies have their impact over time as well as identification of unintended consequences of various policy decisions. This modeling exercise will also help identify gaps in the existing data. Importance: The costs of overweight and obesity, in terms of morbidity and mortality, health care costs, lost productivity, quality of life and shortening of the lifespan are all well established. Also well documented is the consistent and significant increase in overweight and obesity over one generation with no foreseeable end in sight. Thus, while enormous data is now available on obesity, its risk factors and consequences, with more being generated every day, very little is know about how exactly to stop the overweight/obesity epidemic. Policy interventions tend to have the most leverage for problems at the population level, especially ones like overweight and obesity that now affect the vast majority of the population. This project will fill an important gap by helping identify the most important aspects of the problem - for example, where models consistently converge, a policy for success may be identified; where they wildly diverge, important data gaps may exist. While policy interventions in the United States will be the focus of the current project, it will undoubtedly have implications for countries all over the globe, which interestingly (if not disturbingly) seem to be on a similar path with respect to trends in overweight and obesity prevalence. Scope of Work The successful offeror will be a team comprised of a system dynamics modeler with demonstrated expertise, combined with one (or more) experts in obesity-related public policy. In response to this sources sought notice, the contractor team must:  Participate in an initial face-to-face meeting with the project funders and other modeling group network members. This is expected to be a two-day meeting in the Fall of 2009. Travel expenses will be paid by a coordinating center for the project and will not come from the contract being offered. At a minimum, the SD modeler and one obesity policy expert from each team must attend. A major purpose of this meeting will be to narrow down the research questions to be modeled and select a core set to be modeled by all network teams. In addition, this time will be used for teams to get to know one another and to become familiar with relevant work by all groups. Other items that may be discussed will include setting up processes and procedures for the network, such as how and how often teams will communicate.  Convene one or more a face-to-face meetings of the key team members (e.g., the SD modeler and the obesity policy expert). The purpose of this meeting is to develop an initial strategy for the project and to set up within team processes including a plan for communications and approach to modeling. Some of this time should also be used for cross-disciplinary education - the modeler will have to explain how the model works and the relevant steps for model development to the obesity policy expert, and the obesity policy expert will have to explain the main evidence for the model and convey mental models to the modeler. These "intra-team" meetings will be paid for from the contractors funds (i.e., this award) and will not be paid for from the coordinating center.  Participate in web-based, network wide meetings. Attendance is also expected 2-3 times per year at network wide meetings via web-based software and/or telephone. The coordinating center will organize and pay for these meetings (i.e., phone and software connection charges).  Develop system dynamic models capable of providing projected outcomes over the identified time period for the jointly identified research questions. This will involve a collaboration between the system dynamics modeler and the obesity policy expert. Communications may be by phone, email or in person.  Register the models. A key feature of the work is to develop transparent models that are shared with the other modeling groups and beyond (public domain). Good model documentation is required. One of the requirements will be that each model is "registered" on a website that provides a means for comparing models across a variety of features on a common platform. This is used to easily compare various features across each of the network models. While there will be dedicated support available to aid in model registration (i.e., development of the model registration platform), the contractor must agree to fully document their models and enter pertinent details about them on the model registration website.  Participate in a second face-to-face meeting with the project funders and other modeling group network members approximately one year after the project begins. This is expected to be a two-day meeting in the Fall of 2010. Travel expenses will be paid by a coordinating center for the project and will not come from the contract being offered. At a minimum, the SD modeler and one obesity policy expert from each team must attend. A major purpose of this meeting will be to review progress on model development, compare results across modeling groups, and determine further comparative modeling steps for the second (option) year of the network. Period of Performance: It is anticipated that the award will be for the period of performance of 12 months from the date of award with the possibility of one option year. B. EVALUATION AND BASIS FOR AWARD 1. Understanding the Requirements/Technical Approach (40 Points) Quotes will be evaluated on: • Quality and clarity of the methodological approach involved in the development of a system dynamics model. • The general approach, even if the specific policy questions to be modeled are unknown at this time. • Demonstrated knowledge of existing simulation models in the obesity-related or health policy arena and what can be learned from them to inform the proposed work. • Quality of the plan for how the team will function, especially how the obesity policy expert(s) and the system dynamics modeler(s) will communicate and precisely what roles they will have. • Understanding of the Government's intent for this procurement and the feasibility of approach to address its overall goals. • Soundness of approach to incorporate Government input on the project. 2. Personnel/Staff Qualifications (40 Points) Quotes will be evaluated on: • Qualifications, experience and availability of all proposed personnel, including any consultants and/or subcontractors, and evidence of relevant past work. • The proposed team should be led by one or more system dynamics modeler(s) with a track record of developing well-validated, and evidence-based system dynamics (SD) simulation models. • A track record of developing of SD models for health policy, and in particular for obesity or obesity related chronic disease. However, solid SD modeling for policy, even if not health-related, will weigh more than weaker SD models developed in the desired topic area. • Credentials of obesity policy experts. • Experience in a comparative modeling network or similar exercise. • Experience, or at least a strong familiarity with, other modeling approaches including Agent Based Modeling and microsimulation. • Demonstrated awareness that different modeling and simulation approaches do not fall on a hierarchy in terms of being "better" or "worse" than one another. Rather, proposals will be evaluated on demonstrated awareness that different approaches yield different information and are more or less useful depending on the question being addressed. • Augmentation of staff with appropriate consultants, and/or subcontractors, as necessary, and their documented expertise and commitment to the project. Evidence that proposed team can accomplish tasks in specified timeframe. 3. Organizational Capabilities, Experience and Commitment; Facilities and Resources (20 Points) • Evidence of corporate capability to organize and manage resources and personnel effectively. • Experience in managing SD models with stakeholder input, experience in working in modeling teams (i.e., modelers working with content experts), experience working with other modeling teams in a collaborative environment, management of other projects comparable to the size and scope of this procurement. • For any subcontractor(s) proposed, effectiveness and timeliness of management plan in specifying responsibilities allocated to each organization and how these entities shall interact. • Adequacy of mechanisms in place to hire technically qualified staff on a quick turnaround basis, as needed, and to ensure that personnel assigned to a project are retained during the entire project. • Organizational commitment to quality of product and deployment of necessary resources to meet the project requirements. D. OFFERS All proposals must be received by 5:00 p.m. (local prevailing time) on September 4, 2009. Electronic copies are acceptable. However, one signed original of the proposal must be received within one business day from the time designed for receipt of all offers. All responses must be in writing and must include pricing information and meet the criteria requirement. All responses from responsible sources will be considered. All proposals and inquiries regarding this procurement must be submitted to the Office of Acquisitions, National Library of Medicine, 6707 Democracy Blvd., Suite 105, Bethesda, MD 20894-5488 (20817 for courier services) Attention: Sally Boakye, Contracting Officer, at 301-435-4383 or via e-mail to boakyes@mail.nih.gov. All questions regarding the combined synopsis/solicitation must be received by Tuesday, August 28, 2009. Please reference the solicitation number "NLM-9-150-SB" on your proposal and/or inquiries. Facsimile submissions are not authorized and collect calls with NOT be accepted. E. PROVISIONS AND CLAUSES The contractor shall comply with all applicable Federal, State and local laws, executive orders, rules and regulations applicable to its performance under this order. Full text of clauses and provisions are available at Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR): http://ww.arnet.gov/far/. The FAR provisions and clauses sited herein are incorporated by reference into this solicitation. Offerors are advised to propose in accordance with the provision of FAR 52.212-1, Instructions to Offerors Commercial-Items (June 2008). Offerors are advised to provide with their offer a completed copy of the following provisions: FAR 52.212-3, Offeror Representations and Certifications Commercial-Terms (February 2009)- With DUN Number Addendum [52.204-6 (April 2008)]. The following FAR clauses apply to this acquisition: FAR 52.212-4, Contract Terms and Conditions Commercial Items (March 2009); Addendum to Clause Year 2000 Compliance (July 1997); FAR 52.215-5, Contract Terms and Condition Required to Implement Statues or Executives Orders Commercial-Items (April 2009); FAR 52.217-5, Evaluation of Options.
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