SOLICITATION NOTICE
A -- Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan
- Notice Date
- 3/10/2009
- Notice Type
- Combined Synopsis/Solicitation
- NAICS
- 541712
— Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology)
- Contracting Office
- The National Academies, Transportation Research Board, Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2), 500 Fifth Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia, 20001
- ZIP Code
- 20001
- Solicitation Number
- SHRP2_C20
- Archive Date
- 5/6/2009
- Point of Contact
- David Plazak,, Phone: 202-334-1834, Linda Mason,, Phone: 202-334-3241
- E-Mail Address
-
dplazak@nas.edu, lmason@nas.edu
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- SHRP 2 Request for Proposals Focus Area: Capacity Project Number: C20 Project Title: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan Date Posted: March 10, 2009 SHRP 2 Background To address the challenges of moving people and goods efficiently and safely on the nation's highways, Congress has created the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2). SHRP 2 is a targeted, short-term research program carried out through competitively awarded contracts to qualified researchers in the academic, private, and public sectors. SHRP 2 addresses four strategic focus areas: the role of human behavior in highway safety (Safety); rapid highway renewal (Renewal); improved travel time reliability through congestion reduction (Reliability); and transportation planning that better integrates community, economic, and environmental considerations into new highway capacity (Capacity). Under current legislative provisions, SHRP 2 will receive approximately $150 million with total program duration of 7 years. Additional information about SHRP 2 can be found on the program's Web site at www.trb.org/shrp2. Capacity Focus Area The objective of the Capacity focus area is to develop a consistent framework for reaching balanced, collaborative decisions on enhancing transportation capacity and to provide the tools for applying the framework. The research will develop a project evaluation process that will help stakeholders balance the need to reduce delays caused by conflicting demands with the need to produce transportation solutions that support community, economic, and environmental goals. The research will also develop a structure for a project's many contributors to share data and knowledge. This will require identifying critical points for decision making in various processes, the data and knowledge required for these decisions, and successful methods of sharing information. Project Background Many in the transportation community believe that there is an impending crisis with respect to capacity to move freight both inside and beyond metropolitan areas. Moreover, much of the fixed freight transportation infrastructure is reaching the end of its economic life and is not being replaced with equal or more efficient capital. Freight traffic has been growing at a rate much faster than passenger traffic. Freight bottlenecks are evident in all parts of the nation and span all modes of transportation. Understanding and being able to forecast freight traffic is a critical input to planning for future highway capacity. Globalization of the economy means that this problem has large international implications. Understanding freight flows and forecasting them is critical to determining the need for future transportation capacity, whether in terms of highways or other modes. Yet neither the general public nor many decision makers really appreciate the critical economic role that freight transportation plays. Freight transportation routes and facilities often suffer from the "not in my backyard" (NIMBY) phenomenon. Public freight debates are often directed more at mitigating real and perceived negative impacts than toward achieving net positive economic impacts. [Proposers should see Special Note E for an important reference on the state of the practice of freight demand modeling]. At the same time, our ability to forecast freight traffic is universally understood to be in a primitive state. The prevailing approach to freight demand modeling mimics the passenger travel demand modeling process in terms of both theory and tools. Unfortunately, this approach is neither theoretically sound nor effective. Freight demand is much more heterogeneous in nature than passenger demand. Temporal variations in demand can be very large for freight. One type of model simply does not fit all the facets of the market. Through or "external" trips are much more important to consider in the freight world, both among regions and across international boundaries. There is considerable and complex interaction between international and domestic flows. New approaches are needed to truly capture the great variety in public policy and business issues, economic geography, modes, carriers, commodities, shippers, and receivers that exist in the freight world. There are enormous economic and financial risks associated with being wrong in understanding the need for future freight capacity, whether for highways or other facilities. An expected emphasis on making highway renewal decisions that produce longer lasting major infrastructure investments means that being wrong about forecasts could have huge, negative consequences for the economy and the environment. Much more robust forecasts will be needed. Freight has become a major issue for state and metropolitan transportation planners in relatively recent times, which explains the some of the lag of freight forecasting models behind urban travel demand models. Planners and public officials are only now beginning to formulate a wide range of policy questions requiring freight forecasts. These questions require an understanding of complex supply chains involving many shippers and carriers, relationships between the public and private sectors, and interactions among sectors of the economy and economic regions that generally ignore political boundaries. This understanding is not well supported by robust theory, well-developed computational methods, or effective visualization methods for communicating results. Freight forecasts are also hindered by data "dead zones" in national data sets, requiring creative estimation methods to fill the gaps. Data on local freight movements are rare, as are methods to link data on local and interregional freight movements. The significant role of private carriers and shippers in freight transportation and their reluctance to share their data for competitive reasons are key challenges. Tracking systems and other information technology show promise as a new source of freight data, but typically require integration with more tradition data sources to provide an effective picture of freight movement. Many conversations about freight capacity that need to be held between the public and private sectors are not occurring because there is limited data and analysis to support an informed dialog and improved partnerships. Public sector agencies are forced to act in a reactive mode with respect to future freight demand and the investments and policies needed to support freight movement. Objectives This project is intended primarily to foster fresh ideas and new approaches to designing and implementing freight demand modeling rather than to make short-run, incremental improvements to existing models and data sources. The world of freight is too big and too complex to understand without the help of models, but today's models are letting us down in many ways. This project strives for a fresh look at both freight demand modeling and freight data in the context of policies that must be analyzed and decisions that will need to be made in the future. Achieving a major breakthrough in the way that freight demand modeling is done is the primary objective of this project. It is appropriate to conceptualize this $550,000 project as the first phase of a much larger project that achieves major breakthroughs; this project lays the groundwork, initiates innovation on a number of fronts, and documents needed research problem statements for a sustainable "road map" to the future of freight travel demand modeling and data provision. We expect the project to produce a Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan but also to initiate steps toward implementing items in the strategic plan. The following sub-objectives are to be achieved: 1. To define the strategic needs and seed research in freight demand modeling and freight data. Although a strategic research "road map" for improving freight demand modeling and freight data is a desired outcome of this project, fostering potential breakthroughs in thinking, tools, and practice is the primary intent of the project. Potential breakthroughs need to be inspired or identified so that the most promising can be pursued through subsequent research and development. 2. To foster a host of innovative research projects such that a dramatic breakthrough in freight demand modeling tools, freight data, and freight modeling and forecasting practice can be achieved within a 10-year time frame. This includes breakthroughs and knowledge transfer in theory; modeling technology and computation; analysis; data collection and integration; and output, communication, and visualization of results. Improvements should occur at a variety of geographic scales, e.g., at the international, national, mega-regional, metropolitan, and project levels, and should apply to all modes of freight transportation that use, complement, or compete with the highway system. New thinking should better accommodate freight business concepts such as supply chains, truck tours, and optimal asset management. 3. To stimulate innovative and promising research in freight demand modeling and freight data so that pressing public policy issues such as impacts on the economy and jobs, infrastructure investment priorities, energy, greenhouse gases, other environmental concerns, security, internalizing social costs, facility pricing, demand management, strategic bottlenecks, and shifts among modes can be addressed in a more effective manner than current models and data sources allow. 4. To encourage the application of modeling and data improvement ideas from other fields such as public utilities, telecommunications, and natural resources to achieve breakthroughs in thinking and practice. 5. To initiate a multisponsor structure that can sustain critical research and innovation in freight demand modeling and data into the future. Additional funding is anticipated be needed to fully implement the freight demand modeling and data improvement strategic plan that is initiated and mapped out by this project. Tasks Task descriptions are intended to provide a framework for conducting the research. SHRP 2 is seeking the insights of proposers on how best to achieve the research objectives for this project. Proposers are expected to describe research plans that can realistically be accomplished within the constraints of available funds and contract time. Proposals must present the proposers' current thinking in sufficient detail to demonstrate their understanding of the issues and the soundness of their approach to meeting the research objectives. Task 1: Establish a high level Steering Committee to set and maintain the vision and direction for this project. This committee should represent freight demand modeling and data practitioners, demand modeling and data users, other stakeholders and agencies and academic institutions that could be instrumental in funding further innovation and research, and experts in fostering of technological and scientific innovation. Proposers should indicate the groups of stakeholders and agencies that should be represented on the Steering Committee. Proposers should be aware that the SHRP 2 Program will appoint an independent Technical-Expert Task Group (TETG) to monitor the progress of this project and review its deliverables. Task 2: Prepare a comprehensive Background Report on which to base later tasks in the project. Subtasks should include a series of Technical Memoranda that: a. Develop an in-depth scan of the current state of domestic practice in freight demand modeling and data. The scan should identify stakeholder and user needs, strengths, weaknesses, threats, opportunities, and critical issues that need to be addressed through innovation and research. While this task is not intended to produce a conventional literature review, proposers should leverage recent core research such as National Cooperative Highway Research Program Synthesis 384, Forecasting Metropolitan Commercial and Freight Travel (2008). b. Prepare a best practices and innovations review. The contractor should seek out and document domestic and international best practices and innovations that already exist and could be "springboards" to the future if seeded and promoted. It would appear that other nations (e.g., those in the European Union) are ahead of the United States in terms of freight demand modeling and data. Their practices should be better understood by domestic stakeholders and technicians. c. Prepare a technology assessment to determine where freight demand modeling and data are likely to go in the next decade based on technological developments in such areas as modeling theory, computation, computer software, geographic information systems and databases, global positioning and other location-based technologies, radio frequency identifier tags, transponders, and intelligent transportation systems. d. Review and document promising modeling and data developments in other fields-such as utilities, telecommunications, and natural resources-that could be applied to freight transportation, thus leading to breakthroughs in thinking and practice. This investigation should be international in scope. Task 3: Design and plan a Freight Demand Modeling Innovation Program. The basic idea behind the Innovation Program is to search for, identify, showcase, and encourage promising new freight demand modeling paths that need to be explored and supported through future funding beyond the scope of this project. The Innovation Program needs to consider different levels of economic geography in freight demand modeling and data, for instance the need for planning at the international, "mega-region", statewide, metropolitan and small area/project levels. Needs for analytical tools and freight data could vary dramatically by geographic level. Task 3 will involve preparing a detailed plan through which potential critical innovations are identified and innovative researchers are encouraged to contribute their ideas to the Strategic Plan. Proposers should indicate the types of groups (including international audiences and researchers from other fields) they would consider reaching out to during this task. Proposers should also indicate mechanisms they believe could be useful in reaching out to and encouraging active participation in the Strategic Plan by innovative researchers, including but not limited to design competitions, awards and incentives, focused conferences, poster sessions, on line forums and wikis, and webinars and other interactive on-line events. The plan will include a budget for any incentives that are proposed to support the participation of innovators and those will appear as a specific line item in the budget in this research proposal. [See Special Note F.] (The Steering Committee and Technical-Expert Task Group described in Task 1 shall review and approve the results of Tasks 2 and 3 prior to the initiation of Task 4 of this project.) Task 4: Implement the Freight Demand Modeling Innovation Program. During this task, the Innovation Design and Plan developed in Task 3 (as modified to reflect the comments of the Steering Committee) will be carried out. The point of this task is to reach out to a large number of potential innovators and researchers inside and outside the freight demand modeling and data fields to identify, showcase, and document potential breakthrough innovations in data collection, computation and modeling, data analysis, considerations of risk and uncertainty, and communication of results. Task 5: Synthesize the results from Task 4. This task will involve assembling a portfolio of potential breakthrough innovations in need of more research. It may best be arrayed in a matrix by topic (e.g., communication of results) and geographic level (e.g., metropolitan level). The end result will be a series of detailed problem statements for needed research and innovation. The contractor should be prepared to suggest priorities for elements in the portfolio based on the results of Task 2. This task will in essence involve creating a draft version of the "Road Map" for improving freight demand modeling and data. [See Special Note G for examples of similar strategic research planning processes.] Task 6: Organize and convene a stakeholder conference to develop the final strategic plan. This task will involve convening a high-level stakeholder conference that will begin to work toward implementing the strategic plan for improving freight demand modeling and data. Attendees at this conference should include potential future funders of strategic research on freight demand modeling and data from both the public and private sectors. The contractor would provide a draft of the strategic plan for feedback within this forum. The conference should also include a discussion of how the effort to improve freight demand modeling and data is to be sustained so that it can be successfully implemented. Next steps and a structure for maintaining the effort should be clearly identified. Task 7: Document the outcome of Task 6: Final Strategic Plan. [Proposers should again refer to Special note G for references to examples of possibly applicable strategic research plan documents.] Deliverables Collectively, these deliverables will make up the Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan. 1. Technical Memoranda for the four components of Task 2. 2. Background report that compiles and synthesizes the series of Technical Memoranda from Task 2. This report should be written so that it will be useful to a broad audience of stakeholders and users of freight models and data rather than just a narrow technical audience. 3. Innovation Program Plan described in Task 3. 4. Draft Report that synthesizes the results of Task 4. This report will in effect represent a portfolio of research and innovation proposals that are well-defined enough to be fundable in the future. An order of magnitude estimate of funding need should be provided as an indicator of suggested priority. It will be an input for Task 6 along with the Task 2 Background Report. Special Notes Special Note A: Because of the interaction between projects, parallel timing of some projects, and tight schedule, it will be necessary for SHRP 2 researchers to coordinate with each other and with the SHRP 2 staff. Proposers should allow resources for at least two meetings in Washington, D.C. In addition, a SHRP 2 staff officer may request a briefing once or twice during the project at the researcher's offices. Special Note B: The contractor should also be prepared to monitor efforts in freight demand modeling and data that are under way at the US Department of Transportation, leading state departments of transportation, leading metropolitan traffic planning agencies, in academic institutions, and in the private sector throughout the duration of the research. Special Note C: The results of this project are envisioned as input for other projects in the SHRP 2 Capacity focus area, in particular project C15: Integrating Freight Considerations into the Collaborative Decision Making Framework for Additions to Highway Capacity. This project will be under way by late 2010. Proposers should be prepared to coordinate with the contractor for project C15. There could also be synergies in Capacity project C10: Partnership to Develop an Integrated Advanced Travel Demand Model and a Fine-Grained, Time-Sensitive Network. This project should be under way in the fall of 2009. However, it should be understood that project C10 is almost entirely oriented toward achieving a breakthrough in how passenger travel demand modeling is done. It is also important that contractors coordinate with ongoing National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) projects that have to do with the development of a national architecture with freight data collection for local and project level analysis. Respectively, these are NCFRP projects 12 (under way) and 20 (anticipated). However, it should also be understood that NCFRP projects are usually oriented toward making short-term, incremental improvements in practices and tools. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20 is intended to be more long-term in perspective and is also intended to foster a dramatic breakthrough in technologies and practices in freight demand modeling and data. Special Note D: Proposals will be evaluated by SHRP 2 staff and Expert Task Groups (ETGs) consisting of individuals collectively very knowledgeable in the problem areas. Selection of an agency is made by the SHRP 2 Oversight Committee, based on the recommendation of the SHRP 2 staff and the ETG. The following factors are considered: (1) the proposer's demonstrated understanding of the problem; (2) the merit of the proposed research approach and experimental design; (3) the experience, qualifications, and objectivity of the research team in the same or closely related problem area; (4) the proposer's plan for participation by disadvantaged business enterprises-small firms owned and controlled by minorities and women; and (5) the adequacy of facilities. In the case of this particular project, the SHRP 2 staff and the ETG are expecting proposals from consulting teams with members and staff that have experience in conducting processes that foster research and innovation. Experience in preparing strategic research plans is critical, but not sufficient. Special Note E: A very important reference that proposers should consult in preparing their responses is Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings C40, Freight Demand Modeling: Tools for Public Sector Decision Making: Summary of a Conference, September 2006, which is available on the TRB web site at: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conf/CP40.pdf Special Note F: Special emphasis in the review of proposals will be given to creative approaches to encouraging the academic and professional communities to propose innovative theories, computational methods, visualization techniques, and other advances to the state of the art. The intent is to attract a wide variety of potential breakthrough concepts that show enough promise to warrant further research and development. Reviewers will be particularly interested in proposed uses of collaborative and competitive innovation processes that have worked in other fields of science and engineering. Special Note G: A useful example of a strategic research and innovation plan is the Federal Highway Administration's Concrete Pavement Road Map. Federal Highway Administration, "The Concrete Pavement Road Map", Tech Brief Publication No. FHWA-HRT-05-074. Also see material related to the "Road Map" on the World Wide Web at: http://www.cptechcenter.org/publications/task15/task15.cfm A similar effort is currently under way with respect to preparing a Research Roadmap for Geospatial Information Technologies in Transportation at the Transportation Research Board. Funds Available: Entire Project: $550,000 Budgets for project phases should be consistent with the level of effort proposed. As a guideline, the effort should be distributed as follows: Tasks 1 and 2 combined: 15 percent; Tasks 3 through 6 combined: 75 percent; Task 7: 10 percent. Contract Time: 18 months total Responsible Staff: David Plazak, dplazak@nas.edu, 202-334-1834 Authorization to Begin Work: October 2009, anticipated Proposal Due Date Proposals (20 single-bound copies) are due not later than 4:30 p.m. on April 21, 2009 This is a firm deadline, and extensions are simply not granted. In order to be considered, all 20 copies of the agency's proposal accompanied by the executed, unmodified Liability Statement must be in our offices not later than the deadline shown, or they will be rejected. Delivery Address: PROPOSAL-SHRP 2 ATTN: Neil F. Hawks Director, Strategic Highway Research Program 2 Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington DC 20001 Phone: 202-334-1340 Liability Statement The signature of an authorized representative of the proposing agency is required on the unaltered statement in order for SHRP 2 to accept the agency's proposal for consideration. Proposals submitted without this executed and unaltered statement by the proposal deadline will be summarily rejected. An executed, unaltered statement indicates the agency's intent and ability to execute a contract that includes the provisions in the statement. Here is a printable version of the Liability Statement ( http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/shrp2/LiabilityStatement.pdf ). A free copy of the Adobe Acrobat PDF reader is available at http://www.adobe.com. The Liability Statement is included as Figure 1 in the Manual for Conducting Research and Preparing Proposals for SHRP 2 referred to in General Note 4. General Notes 1. Proposals will be evaluated by SHRP 2 staff and Expert Task Groups (ETGs) consisting of individuals collectively very knowledgeable in the problem area. Selection of an agency is made by the SHRP 2 Oversight Committee, based on the recommendation from SHRP 2 staff and the ETG. The following factors are considered: (1) the proposer's demonstrated understanding of the problem; (2) the merit of the proposed research approach and experimental design; (3) the experience, qualifications, and objectivity of the research team in the same or closely related problem area; (4) the proposer's plan for participation by disadvantaged business enterprises (DBEs)-small firms owned and controlled by minorities or women; and (5) the adequacy of facilities. TRB and the SHRP 2 Oversight Committee strongly encourage the significant participation of DBEs in SHRP 2 research contracts. Although no quota is specified nor is DBE participation mandated, the proposer's plan for involvement of DBEs is a factor in contractor selection, and the contractor's adherence to its DBE plan will be monitored during the contract period. Contractors are required to submit periodic reports comparing actual with proposed payments to DBEs. The Contractor Expression of Interest section of the SHRP 2 website is a resource for proposers interested in participating on research teams. This database is being enhanced and will be renamed the Research Team Builder. 2. Any clarifications regarding this RFP will be posted on the SHRP 2 Web site ( www.TRB.org/SHRP2 ). Announcements of such clarifications will be posted on the front page and, when possible, will be noted in the TRB e-newsletter. Proposers are advised to check the Web site frequently until March 26, 2009, when no further comments will be posted. 3. According to the provisions of Title 49, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 21, which relates to nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs, all parties are hereby notified that the contract entered into pursuant to this announcement will be awarded without discrimination on the grounds of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, or disability. 4. The essential features required in a proposal for research are detailed in the Manual for Conducting Research and Preparing Proposals for SHRP 2 ( http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/shrp2/PreparingSHRP2Reports.pdf ). Proposals must be prepared according to this document, and attention is directed specifically to Section IV for mandatory requirements. Proposals that do not conform to these requirements will be rejected. 5. The total funds available are made known in the project statement, and line items of the budget are examined to determine the reasonableness of the allocation of funds to the various tasks. If the proposed total cost exceeds the funds available, the proposal is rejected. 6. All proposals become the property of the Transportation Research Board. Final disposition will be made according to the policies thereof, including the right to reject all proposals. IMPORTANT NOTICE Potential proposers should understand that the research project described herein is tentative. The final content of the program depends on the level of funding made available. Nevertheless, to be prepared to execute research contracts as soon as possible after sponsors' approvals, the Strategic Highway Research Program is assuming that the tentative program will become official in its entirety and is proceeding with requests for proposals and selections of research agencies.
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