SOLICITATION NOTICE
B -- Variability in Abundance of Arctic Cisco in the Colville River: Analysis of Patterns and Existing Data
- Notice Date
- 7/7/2004
- Notice Type
- Solicitation Notice
- Contracting Office
- Minerals Management Service Procurement Operations Branch 381 Elden Street, MS 2500 Herndon VA 20170
- ZIP Code
- 20170
- Solicitation Number
- 1435-01-04-RP-34979
- Response Due
- 7/22/2004
- Archive Date
- 7/7/2005
- Point of Contact
- Michael W. Hargrove Contracting Officer 7037871367 Michael.Hargrove@mms.gov;
- E-Mail Address
-
Email your questions to Point of Contact above, or if none listed, contact the IDEAS EC HELP DESK for assistance
(EC_helpdesk@NBC.GOV)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- PLEASE READ THIS ENTIRE NOTICE CAREFULLY. The UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE (MMS), solicits CAPABILITIES STATEMENTS for the study entitled "VARIABILITY IN ABUNDANCE OF ARCTIC CISCO IN THE COLVILLE RIVER: ANALYSIS OF PATTERNS AND EXISTING DATA". The NAICS code is 541710 and the small business standard is 500 EMPLOYEES. The MMS intends to competitively award a contract to meet specific study objectives. ESTIMATED LEVEL OF EFFORT: The government estimates a period of performance for this contract will be eighteen months and a cost range of $283,000 to $315,000. BACKGROUND INFORMATION: Fall fishing under the ice of the Colville River for Arctic cisco is considered an important part of Inupiat culture and is a vital subsistence harvest for the village of Nuiqsut. Native Alaskans are concerned that Arctic cisco in the Colville River have been less abundant during the last few years than in the years preceding oil and gas development. At a 2003 workshop in Nuiqsut to review existing knowledge and identify major questions, it became evident that much could be gained from a multidisciplinary exploration of existing data sets before commencing with further field data collection. This exploration of existing data could answer many questions and will more precisely delineate need for additional data. This study will use existing data to gain further understanding of the observed trends in Arctic cisco abundance and estimate what factors influence population variation. Study information is essential for implementing sale stipulations and permit regulations and for evaluating offshore oil and gas exploration in this area. GOAL: The goal of this study is to gain understanding of the natural and human factors affecting abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River and to evaluate need for any further field work. OBJECTIVES and methods include: 1. Gather existing appropriate biotic and abiotic multidisciplinary data relevant to Colville River Arctic cisco abundance. 2. Explore data patterns and relationships in the data. 3. Conduct in as much detail as possible appropriate statistical analyses and inferential hypothesis testing of the following general null hypotheses: (a) Changes in oceanographic or hydrographic processes do not significantly change abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. (b) Variations in natural history characteristics do not change the abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. (c) Ecological processes do not change the abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. (d) Existing data are not sufficient to detect effects due to human activities. 4. Conduct sensitivity analysis of variables. 5. Synthesize and quantify the relative importance of natural and human activity on the variability of Arctic cisco populations in the Colville River. 6. Identify data gaps and priorities for acquisition of new data as appropriate. SCOPE OF WORK: TASK 1-DATA COLLECTION. The contractor shall acquire pertinent existing qualitative and quantitative data that can be used to test the hypotheses in the Objectives about biotic and abiotic factors that may play an interactive role with offshore oil and gas development in the variability of Arctic cisco abundance in the Colville River. Compilation of the most pertinent existing data and development of appropriate hypotheses are expected to require a multidisciplinary approach. Data types and hypotheses shall be discussed and an interdisciplinary consensus reached as to their appropriateness and testability. An appropriate relational database compatible with MMS Machine Readable and GIS formats shall contain the data, shall be able to incorporate new data that may be acquired in the future, and shall have a data manual describing the structure and format and providing appropriate instructions. Data shall be documented with metadata that identifies sources, limitations, and permissions. An electronic copy of the data shall accompany the final report. TASK 2-VALIDATE INTERPRETATIONS. The vehicle to implement the validation shall be a panel of approximately five to ten local experts or key informants to create a dialogue that flows between the panel and the contractor throughout the period of the contract. The panel of formal, informal and influential experts will be selected by a process that ensures objectivity and credibility in identifying key informants. The panel should be especially active in both the data exploration and hypothesis testing tasks. The contractor shall also coordinate with ongoing studies to minimize demands on the local community and shall be responsible for arranging meeting logistics. The panel shall meet at least once each during data exploration and hypothesis testing, as well as at other times if appropriate. At each meeting, the contractor shall present the results of the task to date. The contractor shall provide the panel with an orientation to complex visual exploration and statistical diagrams. Through the panel, the contractor shall maximize the use of traditional knowledge and expertise of local residents familiar with Arctic cisco and the local environment to validate the Contractors interpretation. The expert panel shall review plausibility and credibility of emerging patterns and interpretations, and provide recommendations on the variables and data analysis to the Program Manager. The panel will provide feed back on the plausibility of hypothesized relationships based on local familiarity with the resource and environment, help identify alternative explanations not readily apparent to the scientists, and suggest additional factors that could help to improve the interpretations and choice of variables in the statistical analyses. Minutes of the expert panel's meetings and an independent panel final report shall be included in the project deliverables. TASK 3-DATA EXPLORATION. The contractor shall explore the potential to test specific hypotheses (generated from the general null hypotheses above) with data compiled in Task 1. The contractor shall use multivariate visualization software for viewing and exploring high dimensional data to explore patterns and features of the relationships between biotic and abiotic factors that may contribute to the variability in abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. Data shall be systematically explored for relations between variables. The contractor shall identify testable hypotheses that are plausible or credible to scientific experts, as well as other relationships identified in the visual exploration and present these to the panel of local experts as described in Task 2. TASK 4-HYPOTHESIS TESTING. The contractor will further refine and statistically test the specific hypotheses that were derived in Task 3, and that use the recommendations of the panel in Task 2, to identify the relationships of apparent importance to the abundance of Arctic cisco. The contractor shall use inferential statistical data analysis to test these hypotheses taking into account robustness of statistical methods relative to the quantity and quality of the existing data and the resulting power of discrimination. The contractor shall evaluate levels of uncertainty in inputs and outputs in preparation for sensitivity analysis in Task 5 below. The extent to which variability caused by human activities can be evaluated shall be specifically addressed. The contractor shall describe key analyses and relationships in text and also depict them as plainly as possible in appropriate graphs, diagrams, and maps usable by both scientists and the general public. The results and interpretations of the statistical tests shall be presented to the local expert panel described in Task 2 for their feedback. TASK 5-SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. The Contractor shall evaluate the sensitivity of the variables to quantify how much a given change or error in an input variable changes the results of calculations or simulations. This analysis shall be a major component of the study which will also help to identify data gaps and delineate recommendations for prioritizing acquisition of new data. TASK 6-SYNTHESIS, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS. The final report shall synthesize the results of analyzing all the available data, present conclusions pertinent to hypothesis testing, identify data gaps, and make pertinent recommendations regarding further research, and shall consider the input of the expert panel. At a minimum the final report will present and discuss: - A discussion of data gaps, problems or limitations of the data and the effects of these on the analyses- .An explanation for the relational scheme of the data and metadata of the original sources. - What key relationships (hypotheses) were perceived in the exploratory phase, especially new or unexpected relationships. -What relationships (hypotheses) proved significant in statistical tests. - A discussion of robustness; power of the analyses; the uncertainty, and sensitivity of the input and output parameters; and the relative importance of variables analyzed during the study. - How the input of the panel was considered in the hypothesis development and testing. - What new understandings were derived through the analysis. - A discussion of the relationships that the simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses suggest are the priority data collection and research topics to pursue to deepen our understanding of the variability in abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. - An evaluation of what relationships are most relevant to MMS offshore oil and gas lease activities and how the conclusions may have potential application to future MMS NEPA analyses. - A bibliography, including metadata for data sets and relevant literature cited, input into a ProCite database with appropriate keywords. Copies of papers or other references cited that are less than 30 pages are also to be provided separately in .PDF format. - A discussion by the Contractor of the process of validation by the panel of experts. It shall include a summary of activities and recommendations or inputs by the local panel at each stage, a discussion of where the Contractor felt the Panel's input was most valuable, the strengths and weaknesses the Contractor perceived in the process, and the Contractor's recommendations for future use of this type of input. The discussion shall be attached as an appendix. - The expert panel's independent final report shall discuss the same topics as the item above from the panel's perspective. The expert panel's independent report and minutes from the panel meetings shall be attached as appendices to the Contractor's final report. -Final data manual with metadata, sources, limitations, description of structure and formats and appropriate instructions for future users shall be attached as an appendix to the Contractor's final report. TASK 7-PROJECT MANAGEMENT The project management plan shall incorporate methods to ensure multidisciplinary and cross-cultural integration throughout all phases of the project. The management plan shall address efficient commitment of personnel and resources and anticipated problems and solutions. The Contractor shall also arrange to present the findings of the Revised Final Report to MMS staff and key stakeholders. HOW TO RESPOND: In order to compete for these requirements, interested parties MUST demonstrate that they are qualified to perform the work by providing a capability statement by July 22, 2004, detailing: (1) your key personnel (those who would have primary responsibility for performing and/or managing the tasks with their qualifications and specific experience; (2) your organizational experience; and (3) specific references (including contract number & project description, period of performance, dollar amount, client identification with the point of contact & telephone number & E-mail address) for previous work of this nature that your key personnel or organization has performed within the last four years (references will be checked). If you believe the Government will find derogatory information as a result of checking your past performance record, please provide an explanation and any remedial action taken by your company to address the problem. FOLLOWING REVIEW OF CAPABILITIES STATEMENTS, offerors will be informed of the results of the evaluation. Offerors deemed most qualified to perform the work will be provided a request for proposal (RFP). HOW CAPABILITY STATEMENTS WILL BE EVALUATED: Capabilities Statement will be evaluated based on key personnel skills, abilities and experience; organizational facilities; and organizational experience and past performance (including number, size, and complexity of similar projects, adherence to schedules and budgets, effectiveness of program management, willingness to cooperate when difficulties arise, general compliance with the terms of the contracts, and acceptability of delivered products.) HOW TO RESPOND: Interested parties shall submit their Capabilities Statements in original and two (2) copies to Michael W. Hargrove, Contract Specialist, Minerals Management Service, 381 Elden Street, MS-2500, Herndon, VA 20170-4817. Four (4) additional copies shall be sent to Kate Wedemeyer, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS Region, 949 E. 36th Avenue, Anchorage, AK 99508. Timeliness of receipt of submissions will be determined by the time received in the Procurement Operations Branch, Herndon VA. QUESTIONS should be faxed as soon as practicable to Michael W. Hargrove on (703) 787-1041 or E-mailed to Michael.Hargrove@mms.gov. ALL CORRESPONDENCE MUST INCLUDE THE RFP NUMBER (34979) & TITLE ("VARIABILITY IN ABUNDANCE OF ARCTIC CISCO IN THE COLVILLE RIVER: ANALYSIS OF PATTERNS AND EXISTING DATA"), YOUR FULL NAME/COMPANY NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE AND FACSIMILE NUMBERS. REQUESTS OR QUESTIONS BY TELEPHONE ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- Web Link
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- Record
- SN00616366-W 20040709/040707212318 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
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